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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 29

New York Giants 29 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 2-A.Rosas 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model