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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – New York Giants 29

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 19, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model