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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 23

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP