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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 10

New York Giants 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(:31) 2-A.Rosas 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model