4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 29-L.Blount up the middle to NYG 44 for no gain (33-A.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.80 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model