4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LAC 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.14 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.50 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP