4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 38 for 4 yards (50-J.Houston).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model