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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 47

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(8:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 85-A.Gates INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker [50-J.Houston] at KC 35. 38-R.Parker to KC 35 for no gain (85-A.Gates).

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model