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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP