Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(11:46) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to KC 17, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for 1 yard (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model