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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 34

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(:12) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.25 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model