Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens to HOU 48 for 37 yards (28-A.Blue). FUMBLES (28-A.Blue), recovered by JAX-30-C.Grant at HOU 48. 30-C.Grant to HOU 48 for no gain (9-S.Lechler). Houston challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens ran ob at JAX 41 for 26 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model