Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 45

(3:47) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model