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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 45 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to HOU 25, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 11-D.White.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP