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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 85

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 38

What Actually Happened

(12:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth -0.13 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model