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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 38 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model