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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 92

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 38

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to JAX 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens pushed ob at HOU 26 for 27 yards (28-A.Blue). PENALTY on JAX-52-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 92, worth -5.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.66 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 50, worth -3.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP