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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 87

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:22) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to HOU 29, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.16 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model