Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 – Houston Texans 0

(12:55) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to HOU 3, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 19 for 16 yards (55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.28 EP
57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model