Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 40 for 7 yards (22-J.Todman). PENALTY on HOU-9-S.Lechler, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model