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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to HOU 20, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.66 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model