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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 82

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(13:18) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.54 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP