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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to MIN 30, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 40 for 10 yards (46-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.55 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 40, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model