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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 1 yard (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model