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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP