Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 91

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to MIN 42, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 42 for no gain (87-C.Uzomah; 56-H.Nickerson). PENALTY on MIN-42-B.Gedeon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.02 EP
46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 91, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model