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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 53 yards to CIN 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model