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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(4:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 31 for 6 yards (89-R.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model