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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to MIN 23, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model