Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 77

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(5:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 26, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 38 for 12 yards (49-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model