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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 19

Chicago Bears 3 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 24, and recovers at DET 27. 10-M.Trubisky to DET 14 for 13 yards (94-E.Ansah). PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 14.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP