Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 70

Detroit Lions 20 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 6-S.Martin punts 24 yards to CHI 46, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-53-J.Timu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 46.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.99 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model