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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 30

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model