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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 42

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to DET 7, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model