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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 55

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 5, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 28 for 23 yards (16-P.O'Donnell). PENALTY on DET-31-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DET 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.42 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP