Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Washington Commanders 7

(:20) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-10-B.Golden.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth -0.13 EP
61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 85, worth -5.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model