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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 65

Washington Commanders 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to ARI 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 12 for 1 yard (47-Q.Dunbar).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.60 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model