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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model