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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 14

Washington Commanders 17 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model