4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 93

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to WAS 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder to ARI 44 for 9 yards (10-B.Golden).

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 93, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 51, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model