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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 59

Washington Commanders 17 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to ARI 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 16 for 4 yards (38-J.Holsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model