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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model