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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP