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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 76

Washington Commanders 14 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to ARI 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 31 for 9 yards (22-D.Everett, 31-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.30 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP