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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 4-P.Dawson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model