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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 1

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-P.Dawson 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +4.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP