Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 55

Washington Commanders 14 – Arizona Cardinals 6

(5:34) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.47 EP
75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model