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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 2-A.Lee punts 33 yards to 50, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.10 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model