Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 83

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to TEN 27, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 44 for 17 yards (10-B.Golden). ARI-50-G.Martin was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-36-L.Sims, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.80 EP
73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model