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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model